Global conflict – trends examined to forecast drivers of unrest
15 March, 2011
Shifts in demographics, climate and economy will be amongst the main drivers of future conflict. Challenges include access to the ‘global commons’ of space, maritime and cyber, WMD proliferation and transnational crime.
Global conflict – future trends and challenges: towards 2030
Monday 28 February – Wednesday 2 March 2011 (WP1073)
Future opportunities include breakthroughs in alternative energy, increased access to the Arctic and greater collaboration with rising powers.
Current changes in the Middle East demonstrate that, whilst forecasting can be a risky and unreliable business, much can be learned from an examination of trends. Drivers will act at individual, state and international level; globalisation means that no country is immune from shocks. There was general agreement that the nature and sources of future conflict will be diverse. The balance of power is shifting with a rise in regional groupings, greater competition over resources and the emergence of non traditional actors such as corporates and non-state actors.
State legitimacy which includes security and justice is key to future stability and there is a pressing need for the international community to collaborate in addressing the needs of failed states. Existing international structures may no longer be the appropriate mechanisms and it is critical that future governance takes account of the changing nature of conflict and increasingly de-centralised powers.
Emerging global trends blog from Maleeha Lodhi, Special Adviser, International Affairs, Geo/Jang Group