The UK faces a widening trust deficit
Participants repeatedly identified declining trust in institutions, political leadership, and democratic processes as a defining feature of the current environment. Long-term institutional failures, economic pressures, dissatisfaction with public services and perceptions that government is unable to respond effectively to public concerns, were all identified as contributing factors.
It was also observed that this erosion of trust has implications beyond politics alone, and increasingly affects relationships between citizens, institutions and communities themselves. Several contributors argued that the weakening of trust has created conditions in which anti-democratic narratives and conspiratorial thinking can spread more easily.
Discussions also revolved around the extent to which the social contract is perceived to have weakened. Participants noted that many citizens increasingly feel disconnected from decision-making processes and unconvinced that democratic institutions are responsive to their concerns. The cumulative effect of repeated institutional failures was described as contributing to a broader sense of democratic fragility.
Extremist narratives are increasingly entering mainstream discourse
The extent to which extremist narratives, conspiratorial thinking and anti-democratic beliefs are increasingly becoming mainstreamed across parts of society was a persistent issue for the majority of participants. There was concern that the cordon sanitaire – traditionally separating extremist discourse from mainstream politics and public debate – has weakened considerably.
Furthermore, support for extremist positions was often described as being emotionally rather than rationally driven and that evidence-based rebuttals alone are unlikely to be sufficient. There was concern that grievance, anger, and identity-based narratives are increasingly shaping political discourse in ways that create opportunities for extremist actors.
Participants also discussed the role played by political figures and online influencers in legitimising narratives that were previously confined to the fringes. The normalisation of hostility, intimidation and even violence towards democratic institutions, minorities and public officials was identified as a significant concern.
Social cohesion and democratic resilience are national security concerns
There was broad agreement that democratic resilience and social cohesion should be understood as matters of national security. Participants noted that extremism thrives in environments characterised by distrust, fragmentation and declining institutional legitimacy.
As such, it was argued that strengthening trust, cohesion and democratic participation should be understood as preventative security measures rather than solely social policy objectives. Several contributors pointed to examples from international partners where democratic resilience is increasingly being integrated into national preparedness frameworks.
Participants also noted that weakening social cohesion can create vulnerabilities which some foreign states may seek to exploit. Trust between citizens and institutions was repeatedly described as a strategic asset which contributes directly to national resilience.
Online ecosystems are accelerating radicalisation and polarisation
Participants discussed the increasingly important role of online platforms, recommendation algorithms, and generative AI in amplifying extremist narratives, conspiracy theories and disinformation. Concerns were raised that online environments reward outrage, polarisation and emotionally-charged content while weakening the ability of democratic institutions to compete effectively in speed, scale and sophistication.
It was also noted that the limited transparency currently provided by major technology platforms and the challenges this creates for understanding the scale of online harms. Some contributors argued that existing regulatory frameworks have struggled to keep pace with technological developments.
The increasing sophistication of AI-generated content and autonomous online influence systems was also discussed. Participants noted that the distinction between authentic and synthetic content is becoming increasingly blurred and that this poses long-term implications for public trust and democratic discourse.
Foreign States can exploit existing societal tensions
The role played by some foreign states, particularly Russia and Iran, in amplifying divisive narratives and exploiting existing social tensions within democratic societies were carefully considered in the room. However, participants stressed that foreign states amplify grievances and narratives that already exist domestically rather than creating them independently.
The use of generative AI, coordinated online influence operations, and asymmetric information warfare were all discussed as growing areas of concern. Participants argued that democratic societies remain insufficiently prepared for the scale and sophistication of these activities.
There were also discussions about the convergence between foreign state activity and domestic extremist ecosystems online, particularly where anti-democratic and antisemitic narratives overlap.