Introduction
Sub-Saharan Africa[1] (SSA) is undergoing a profound demographic transformation. The region’s population, currently estimated at 1.2 billion, is projected to reach approximately 2.1 billion by 2050, accounting for over 20% of the global population. Notably, by 2040, SSA will have the world’s largest population of individuals under the age of 25, due to a slower decline in fertility rates compared to the more rapid decline in mortality rates. These demographic trends carry significant implications, not only for the continent but for global development as well.
In response to these trends, the use of demographic data and evidence is increasingly relevant in planning, policy and investment decisions. Understanding how population trends are likely to unfold in the short, medium and long term is critical for achieving a more inclusive, prosperous and sustainable future.
Demography is particularly relevant for two areas. Firstly, without proactive planning and investment, continued rapid population growth risks outpacing development efforts. Secondly, proactive planning and investment are required to draw benefit from future opportunities, such as when population structures shift towards lower dependency rates, creating a window of opportunity for SSA’s further development. It is therefore essential that governments across SSA, the private sector, and international partners work together to create systems and tools that can support forward-looking policy design and implementation that accommodate demographic shifts, supported by the committed leadership necessary to make this happen. This is particularly relevant for SSA’s investments in human capital and labour market structures. Better skilled and higher educated youth can be associated with social shifts and economic opportunities, but if the labour market is unable to absorb young new workers in productive activities, demographic potential will not be harnessed. Decisions now on planning, policy, and investments will have tremendous developmental impacts for the future, particularly for fulfilling the potentials of SSA’s youthful population.
Building on the momentum of the 2023 Heads of State Human Capital Summit convened by the World Bank in Tanzania, this Wilton Park roundtable examined how demographic evidence and data can be embedded in different policy areas. This roundtable offered regional governments, researchers, private sector representatives and other experts a platform to exchange insights, share evidence, and collaboratively develop strategies on pathways to respond to challenges and opportunities.
[1] The World Bank defines Sub-Saharan Africa as comprising the following countries: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, The Republic of the Congo, Cote D’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Sub-Saharan Africa | Data