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Rethinking deterrence and assurance: Russia’s strategy relating to regional coercion and possible war and NATO’s response (WP1470)


The meeting:

  • Assessed the political and military dimensions of Russia’s strategy for regional coercion and possible war against a NATO member;
  • Identified potential escalation dynamics in a Russia-NATO confrontation, especially if Russia should try to escalate its way out of failed conventional aggression with nuclear de-escalation strikes and other means;
  • Understood the challenges and requirements of effectively countering Russia’s strategy;
  • Identified and explored key decisions that NATO will have to take at the July Warsaw summit bearing on the future evolution of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture, including its nuclear component.


We asked four of our participants to suggest the outcome they would like to see from the Warsaw Summit later this year. Here’s what they had to say.

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