Once established, a key objective of the new Global Partnership WMD-RT Community of Practice would be to sustain a multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral process to identify, review, and prioritise new technology-based capacities to prevent, detect, deter, and investigate the acquisition of WMD. A foundational element of this process should be a regular, if not continuous, horizon scanning effort to help government and civil society stakeholders stay abreast of technological advances in key tech sectors. Crucially, the horizon scanning and information sharing process must also ensure that the private sector at all levels – from DIY to academia, start-ups, mid-sized companies, and global tech titans – possesses a clear, high-level picture of the dynamic and evolving spectrum of WMD proliferators and proliferation risks. Tight time scales are recognised as a significant issue in this rapidly evolving environment, emphasising the need for more focus on AI safety rather than just AI models.
Results from the ongoing horizon scanning process should directly inform an objective, science-based, and GP-wide risk assessment and risk management framework. Given increasing demands on limited time and resources, particularly for Global South partners, a common risk identification and management framework would be beneficial in prioritising problem sets and ensuring the most efficient use of limited capacities. A two-tiered risk framework would be effective, encompassing a GP risk assessment framework outlining areas of focus for the GP, and a framework for working with technology partners on their risk assessments while including regional partners and international organisations to facilitate the rollout of such frameworks.
Scenario-based exercises, including red/blue teaming, are a well-tested and promising methodology for integrating diverse stakeholders around a common horizon scanning, information sharing, and risk analysis framework. Such exercises help elevate strategic thinking, enhance operational preparedness, and can be highly compelling in propelling policy action. Approaches can vary, from anonymising real-world incidents to developing plausible future scenarios based on current trends. For example, a question like, “How will CBRN weapons and related materials be proliferated in 5 to 10 years?” could guide the development of detailed scenarios illustrating the impact of different WMD-RTs on proliferation pathways for various threat agents. Tabletop or field exercises could then address these scenarios, tailored to regional contexts, including the Global South.