NATO members need to deliver the capabilities that SACEUR has asked for in the family of plans. These capabilities are multi domain and geographically focused. If NATO is able to field the force called for in the family of plans then deterrence by denial would be strongly in place. Progression towards this NATO future force must reflect a new division of labour between the US and European/Canadian allies that reduces Washington’s burden of deterrence and defence in Europe and places primary responsibility for these tasks on the other allies. In a mid-March 2025 speech to Danish military cadets EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed the need for urgent European action to build by 2030 a strong, credible deterrence and defence posture.
Development of new European defence capabilities can help reconfirm the US commitment to European security by meeting long-standing calls from Washington for more equitable transatlantic burden-sharing. Delivery of these capabilities must also take into account a scenario in which the US needs to largely or entirely divert its military resources to a crisis and conflict in Asia. If there is a US-China military confrontation in Asia, Russia is very likely to simultaneously challenge NATO in Europe and the Arctic. NATO needs to assess the most acute vulnerabilities that would arise if the US did need to withdraw its military capabilities from Europe and how best to address those vulnerabilities.
There are consequently two, critical overarching goals to achieve in moving towards the NATO future force. The first goal is for all allies to agree an orderly transition to European primary responsibility for defence and deterrence along with European delivery of the necessary capabilities, based on key milestones for 2030 and 2035. The January 2025 Alphen Group Atlantic Charter 2025 provides one such substantive roadmap in what is a fast-evolving tableau. This transition plan should be ready for presentation at NATO’s 2026 Summit.
The second goal for a transition plan to the NATO future force and a new transatlantic division of labour is for Europeans to prioritise mitigation of the most acute vulnerabilities that would arise if US defence contributions were unavailable. Foremost amongst these vulnerabilities are strategic enablers such as persistent and resilient C4ISTAR, heavy lift, and air-to-air refuelling. Europeans must address these and other key capability gaps that would arise from a lack of access to US military assets on as urgent a basis as possible.
Achieving these goals, and transforming European forces with new technology as it comes on line, would ensure both high level interoperability with American forces and the ability to provide deterrence and defence in Europe without US contributions in case of need.