The Alliance has been evolving in a very positive direction in recent years. NATO now has a planning process that is delivering on military requirements, and defence investments are significantly increasing. Forward presence and deterrence by denial are at the heart of NATO’s family of plans, introduced at the 2023 Vilnius Summit. Deterrence by denial should not be underestimated for its impact on Russian thinking given Russia’s surprising ability to regenerate forces. NATO has also undertaken an increasing range of measures to address the major threat of hybrid attacks, emphasising both prevention and response.
NATO exercises have come a long way in terms of testing real world operational scenarios, but more progress is needed. Exercises now reflect the renewed focus on forward defence and logistics, although requirements for pre stocking of equipment have still not been met. Allies also need to improve military mobility and exercise it. Neither the EU nor the private sector, which should be key partners for NATO, are involved in exercises.
The private sector has a major role to play in deterrence and defence. The transport of over 90% of military capability is covered by private means. Military communications take place through systems mostly provided by the private sector. Overall, the military makes major use of commercial infrastructure, underscoring the critical importance of partnership between the military and the private sector. It is difficult to bring the private sector into field exercises but more feasible for table top ones.
A true NATO-EU strategic partnership would possess all the levers that are needed to address hybrid warfare threats. The EU released a White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030 in March 2025. The Defence White Paper sets 2030 for strengthening the EU’s overall defence readiness, including European contributions to NATO deterrence and collective defence. Military mobility and infrastructure constitute an important element of the White Paper, encompassing both financing needs and regulatory reform. The EU Commission is moving very rapidly to make progress on both of these fronts.
More work is needed on capability development, interoperability and speed of implementation. It took far too long for Western states to ramp up ammunition production following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Within NATO, thirty-two separate nations are setting capability requirements. Production of standardized munitions and other equipment needs improvement. NATO could deliver better interoperability through its Standardization Agreements (STANAGs) but does not act forcefully to ensure adherence to them.
The Committee of National Armaments Directors (CNAD) should lead an Alliance-wide Strategic Audit to better exploit technology for strengthening deterrence and defence requirements and to harmonise investments across the allied defence, technological and industrial base. Development of technologies that are close to a level of maturity, such as autonomous ground vehicles, are key to the urgent transition needed to the NATO future force, and should be accelerated, with interoperability by design strengthened. The integration of new technology into legacy systems is also very important. NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO) has evolved into a key partner for Allied Command Transformation (ACT) in formulating future military strategy, and ACT should collaborate more closely as well with Allied Command Operations (ACO) on near term warfighting needs.
Military operations in Ukraine constitute a remarkable test bed for much of NATO’s transition needs, such as integrating new technology into existing platforms. The Ukrainians are applying software updates to weapons systems on a weekly or even twice weekly basis, and the drone industry is moving ahead on an almost daily basis. There are many lessons to be learned from Ukrainians about how to operate on a modern battlefield.[1]
[1] For example, in December 2024, “a Ukrainian attack on a Russian position in the vicinity of Kharkiv used both uncrewed ground vehicles in conjunction with first-person-view drones. The ground vehicles, uncrewed, conducted the full spectrum of missions, including surveillance, mine clearance and direct fire…, with close co-ordination and support from uncrewed aerial systems. To our mind, this tactical air-land operation represents one of the first instances of a successfully uncrewed battle fought by one side…, perhaps in hindsight a seminal moment in the changing character of conflict.” Remarks by UK Chief of the General Staff General Sir Roly Walker; https://euro-sd.com/2025/01/major-news/42282/iav-2025-cgs-speech/